Summary

Understanding an analytical and complex matter requires the discerning talents of System 2. However, System 2 taps the facts and impressions that System 1 has amassed. System 1 is highly adept at automatic and effortless thinking and causally connects events and experiences. System 1 must have comparative data in order to make assessments.

System 1 does not doubt its assessments. It produces stories that are as coherent as possible given the data it has. System 2 can be doubtful, but doubt opens up a can of worms that requires focus and energy. When necessary, System 1 constructs a story with just scraps of input. The result can be an assessment that makes sense. This “causal” intuition can lead to serious mistakes. People are pattern seekers and believe in a coherent world. Like System 1, people see patterns where none exist and generally do not believe in randomness. Basketball players who seem to...