The Signal and the Noise

Predictions that fail can sometimes point to analysts or researchers who were led astray by their own lack of discipline. The noise that surrounds a process can obfuscate the important signal that must be the focus or a main factor of the forecast. Heavy clouds black clouds that line the skies over the Gulf of Mexico could generate a weather forecast of heavy rain by an inexperienced or inept weatherman. However, the astute meteorologist will ignore that superfluous indicator and look deeper and learn that a hurricane is forming in the Gulf and heading for New Orleans. While the clouds were ominous, dark and certainly dramatic, they were just noise. The signal is the hurricane that is forming and will be a danger to the people.

A forecaster who learns to distinguish between the signal and the noise will have a leg up on...