Part One: Umberto Eco's Antilibrary, or How We Seek Validation; Part Two: We Just Can't Predict, Chapter 9: The Ludic Fallacy, or The Uncertainty of the Nerd; Chapter 10: The Scandal of Prediction Summary and Analysis

Summary

In Chapter 9 the author described the ludic fallacy, a common error of equating games of chance and dice rolls with true uncertainty and randomness that are found in the real world. He described his experiences at a meeting in Las Vegas on the subject of uncertainty and how the military leaders understood its true nature better than the academics and casino owners. The military attendees had already conceptualized the idea of unknown unknowns, as opposed to known unknowns. The academic...