Introduction, Chapter 1 - Examples and Principles Summary and Analysis

There are many educated people in the world who consistently misuse math. While a grammarian may cringe over a misused word, one would rarely recognize an egregious error when another estimates probability. One example Paulos uses is a common error made by weather forecasters. A weather forecaster may announce that a 50 percent chance of rain on Saturday and a 50 percent chance of rain on Sunday means a there's a 100 percent chance of rain over the weekend, which is false. Paulos also finds that doctors are rarely correct in estimating a patient's chance for success during surgery. If a doctor says that there is one in a million chances of a mishap, then the follow up remark that the procedure is 99 percent safe is incorrect.

As a mathematician, the author claims to...