Summary

In Chapter 4, “The Threat Matrix,” Osterholm defines a threat matrix as a graph that shows what people should be most worried about, and what they are actually most worried about, based on what has the biggest actual impact versus which has the scariest one. He says that infectious disease usually ranks much further down the list than it actually should. He says that there are four events that could have a negative effect on the entire planet: thermonuclear war, an asteroid strike, global climate change, and infectious disease. Out of these, he says the first two are unlikely, climate change is inevitable but slow enough to plan for, and infectious disease outbreaks, whose likelihoods and severities are increased by climate change, are the most dangerous. Though an outbreak will likely come from nature, Osterholm says that it will be more like living through...