by Mark N. Katz

About the author: Mark N. Katz is a professor of government and politics at George Mason University in Fairfax, Virginia.

Plenty of warnings have been issued about what might go wrong in Iraq: the Shiite clergy might set up an Islamic republic, as in neighboring Iran; the Sunni minority—with help from neighboring Arab states—might reassert some form of dictatorial rule; or a Kurdish attempt at secession might trigger Turkish and Iranian intervention. It is also possible, however, that things might actually go right in Iraq, and that a liberal democracy will come into being there.

This possibility must be taken seriously. The American (or American-led) occupations of West Germany, Italy, and Japan after World War II helped incubate democracy successfully in those countries. The...