Morgan O. Reynolds

In the following viewpoint, Morgan O. Reynolds argues that the crime rate has declined because of new get-tough policies that are putting more criminals in prison. Criminals are aware of the increased likelihood that punishment awaits them, he asserts, and therefore they are making a rational choice to not commit crimes. Studies have found that criminals are more influenced by the certainty of punishment than the severity of punishment. Since the risk of imprisonment has increased, Reynolds maintains, the crime rate has steadily declined. Reynolds is a senior fellow and director of the National Center for Policy Analysis.

As you read, consider the following questions:

1. What evidence does Reynolds present to support his contention that criminals respond to negative incentives?
2. According to Steven Levitt’s calculations, how many crimes are eliminated...