Jeffrey E. Garten

Jeffrey E. Garten is the undersecretary for commerce for international trade. He also held senior posts in the White House and U.S. Department of State in the Nixon, Ford, and Carter administrations. In the following viewpoint, Garten argues that in the new world order, the replacement for the Cold War is likely to be a “cold peace.” His projected scenario of world relations in the late 1990s illustrates how America’s former allies in the Cold War—Japan and Germany—could become America’s new enemies. The author predicts that conflicts over trade and international crisis management will result in a breakdown in cooperation among the “Big Three”—Germany, Japan, and America— and contribute to a turbulent twenty-first century.

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