Forecasting is defined by B.R. Martin as "the process involved in systematically attempting to look into the longer-term future of science, technology, the economy and society with the aim of identifying the areas of strategic research and emerging generic technologies likely to yield the greatest economic and social benefits."

Numerous techniques for forecasting technological developments were pioneered in the 1960s in both business and government (particularly military) applications, and the term "foresight studies" is now commonly used. The more important of the techniques are described here.

The S-Shaped Logistic Curve

The growth of a new technological capability typically follows an S-shaped curve that can be divided into three stages. The first is slow initial growth, as the new technology has to prove its superiority over existing technologies. Once this is demonstrated, a period of rapid growth follows. Finally, its growth is limited by technological or...