Forecasting has been important in sociological thought. Early European sociologists argued that societies progress through inevitable historical stages; those theories helped sociologists predict all societies' futures. Early American sociologists adopted the pragmatists' rule that a science proves it "works" by predicting future events (Schuessler 1971). Sociologists, however, have only recently adopted methods appropriate for those early goals. The review in this article of the delayed development of social forecasting includes (1) three sociologists' conceptual uses of forecasting and some reasons their suggestions were not followed, (2) qualitative and quantitative methods of forecasting, and (3) recent indications of increased interest in forecasting.

Forecasting Traditions

Sociologists have contributed several social forecasting concepts that were historically significant enough to become traditional orientations in the analysis of the future. William F. Ogburn "held that in the modern world technological inventions commonly come first and social effects later. By reason of this lag, it is...