How does Tova think Erik died?

After Tova helps Marcellus into the bay and takes the mop bucket back to the aquarium, she sits on the pier. Avery comes looking for Cameron. She tells Tova that a few years ago she stopped a woman from jumping from there. The woman looked rough and as though she was on something. The woman kept talking about a terrible accident and a boom. Tova realizes what probably happened to Erik. Something knocked the bow off course. A gust of wind caught the sail the wrong way. The boom swung wildly and smacked Erik's head and knocked him overboard. Tova thinks that is probably the way that Erik died.