2. According to the author, the dynamics of what help explain the recurrent cycles of disaster, concern, and complacency that are familiar to students of large-scale emergencies?

3. Who used a method to test intentional causality by making a film in 1944 that involved a circle and two triangles?

4. What statistician illustrated the ease with which people see patterns where none exist?

5. What comparison does the author make between six-year-old boys and six-year-old girls in Chapter 10?

Short Essay Questions

1. What is Bayesian inference?

2. What scene does the author present in order to demonstrate "norm theory" in the text?

3. Describe the Muller-Lyer illusion. What does it demonstrate?

4. What does WYSIATI mean and how does the author apply it?

5. How are regression and correlation connected?

6. What is prospect theory?

7. What is anchoring?

8. What experiment is described in the article "Mind at Ease Puts a Smile on the Face"?

9. What is a heuristic?

10. What study by psychologist Eckhard Hess inspired Kahneman's early work?

Essay Topics

Write an essay for ONE of the following topics:

Essay Topic 1

What has the author concluded regarding risk-taking choices? How do they connect with or oppose risk aversion? What are examples presented by the author that illustrate these concepts?

Essay Topic 2

What proposition did Daniel Gilbert present in “How Mental Systems Believe”? How are belief and unbelief defined? How should one assess a decision based on Gilbert's conclusions?

Essay Topic 3

What is the author's history with Amos Tversky? On what works did the two collaborate? What terms and concepts did these individuals develop? Cite examples from the text in your answer.

(see the answer keys)

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