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Lesson 1 (from Introduction, Chapter 1 - Examples and Principles)

Objective

One of John Allen Paulos' main issues with innumerates is the inability to properly calculate probabilities. Discuss Paulos' argument and learn more about probabilities and why they are important.

Lesson

1. The first example Paulos gives regards weather forecasters giving figures about the likelihood of rain. As a class, discuss the common error made by weather forecasters. Had you ever noticed the error before? Gather and watch various weather reports from local, national and international weather services and/or news stations. Which is the most likely to make a correctly calculated prediction? Why? Why are the others less likely to predict accurately?

2. Many people swear by the Farmer's Almanac for accurate weather predictions. Compare a current copy of the Farmer's Almanac with current weather reports. Which is the most accurate? How does the Almanac predict the weather so accurately? What else is the Almanac used for?

3. Compare...

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