Although the first great shock of demobilization and war-work termination has thus been met better than many observers expected, specific industries and specific regions show much unevenness in the progress of reconversion.

The Quarterly Report of the Director of War Mobilization and Reconversion analyzes the difficulties in recruiting personnel and obtaining materials that hamper reconversion in certain industries and proposes policies to deal with these situations.  The lack of adequate housing is one of the main factors checking the flow of workers into areas where job opportunities exist.

FEDERAL REVENUE, BORROWING, AND THE

PUBLIC DEBT

I. FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS AND TAX POLICY

Recommendations for tax legislation should be considered not only in the light of the financial requirements of the ensuing year, but also in the light of future years’ financial requirements and a full consideration of economic conditions.

Expenditures are estimated at nearly 36 billion dollars in the fiscal year 1947; they can hardly be expected to be reduced to less than 25 billion dollars in subsequent years.  Net receipts in the fiscal year 1947 are estimated at 31.5 billion dollars.

Included in this estimate are 2 billion dollars of receipts from disposal and rental of surplus property and 190 million dollars of receipts from renegotiation of wartime contracts.  These sources of receipts will disappear in future years.  Tax collections for the fiscal year 1947 also will not yet fully reflect the reduction in corporate tax liabilities provided in the Revenue Act of 1945.  If the extraordinary receipts from the disposal of surplus property and renegotiation of contracts be disregarded, and if the tax reductions adopted in the Revenue Act of 1945 were fully effective, present tax rates would yield about 27 billion dollars.

These estimates for the fiscal year 1947 are based on the assumption of generally favorable business conditions but not on an income reflecting full employment and the high productivity that we hope to achieve.  In future years the present tax system, in conjunction with a full employment level of national income, could be expected to yield more than 30 billion dollars, which is substantially above the anticipated peacetime level of expenditures.

In view of the still extraordinarily large expenditures in the coming year and continuing inflationary pressures, I am making no recommendation for tax reduction at this time.

We have already had a substantial reduction in taxes from wartime peaks.  The Revenue Act of 1945 was a major tax-reduction measure.  It decreased the total tax load by more than one-sixth, an amount substantially in excess of the reductions proposed by the Secretary of the Treasury to congressional tax committees in October 1945.  These proposed reductions were designed to encourage reconversion and peacetime business expansion.