Upon the conference shortly to be held in London will depend such moderation as we can make in naval expenditure.  If we shall be compelled to undertake the naval construction implied in the Washington arms treaty as well as other construction which would appear to be necessary if no international agreement can be completed, we shall be committed during the next six years to a construction expenditure of upward of $1,200,000,000 besides the necessary further increase in costs for annual upkeep.

After 1914 the various Army contingents necessarily expanded to the end of the Great War and then receded to the low point in 1924, when expansion again began.  In 1914 the officers and men in our regular forces, both Army and Navy, were about 164,000, in 1924 there were about 256,000, and in 1929 there were about 250,000.  Our citizens’ army, however, including the National Guard and other forms of reserves, increase these totals up to about 299,000 in 1914, about 672,000 in 1924, and about 728,000 in 1929.

Under the Kellogg pact we have undertaken never to use war as an instrument of national policy.  We have, therefore, undertaken by covenant to use these equipments solely for defensive purposes.  From a defense point of view our forces should be proportioned to national need and should, therefore, to some extent be modified by the prospects of peace, which were never brighter than to-day.

It should be borne in mind that the improvement in the National Guard by Federal support begun in 1920 has definitely strengthened our national security by rendering them far more effective than ever heretofore.  The advance of aviation has also greatly increased our effectiveness in defense.  In addition to the very large program of air forces which we are maintaining in the Army and Navy, there has been an enormous growth of commercial aviation.  This has provided unanticipated reserves in manufacturing capacity and in industrial and air personnel, which again adds to our security.

I recommend that Congress give earnest consideration to the possibilities of prudent action which will give relief from our continuously mounting expenditures.

FINANCES OF THE GOVERNMENT

The finances of the Government are in sound condition.  I shall submit the detailed evidences and the usual recommendations in the special Budget message.  I may, however, summarize our position.  The public debt on June 30 this year stood at $16,931,000,000, compared to the maximum in August, 1919, of $26,596,000,000.  Since June 30 it has been reduced by a further $238,000,000.  In the Budget to be submitted the total appropriations recommended for the fiscal year 1931 are $3,830,445,231, as compared to $3,976,141,651 for the present fiscal year.  The present fiscal year, however, includes $150,000,000 for the Federal Farm Board, as to which no estimate can as yet be determined for 1931.