“I fear that the duke has made a terrible mistake, Paolo.  Hitherto all who have ventured to measure their strength with the cardinal have been worsted, and many have lost everything and are now fugitives from France.  Some have lost their lives as well as honours and estates.  Bouillon is an independent prince, and so was Lorraine, and although the latter could put ten men in the field to every one the duke could muster, he has been driven from his principality.  Soissons could not help him except with his name, nor can the Archbishop of Rheims.  Not a few of the great nobles would join the duke did they think that he had a prospect of success.  None have so far done so, though possibly some have given him secret pledges, which will count for nothing unless it seems that he is likely to triumph.

“It is rumoured, as you know, that he has made an alliance with Spain and Austria.  Both will use him as an arm against France, but will throw him over and leave him to his fate whenever it suits them.  Moreover, their alliance would assuredly deter any, who might otherwise range themselves with him, from taking up arms.  No Huguenot would fight by the side of a Spaniard; and although the Guises and the Catholic nobles allied themselves with Spain against Henri of Navarre, it was in a matter in which they deemed their religion in danger, while this is but a quarrel between Bouillon and the cardinal; and with Spain fighting against France in the Netherlands, they would not risk their lands and titles.  Bouillon had better have stood alone than have called in the Spaniards and Austrians.  We know whose doing that is, the Archbishop of Rheims, who is a Guise, and, methinks, from what I have seen of him, a crafty one.

“I am sure that neither the duke nor Soissons would, unless won over by the archbishop, have ever consented to such a plan, for both are honourable gentlemen, and Soissons at least is a Frenchman, which can hardly be said of Bouillon, whose ancestors have been independent princes here for centuries.  However, I fear that he will rue the day he championed the cause of Soissons.  It was no affair of his, and it is carrying hospitality too far to endanger life and kingdom rather than tell two guests that they must seek a refuge elsewhere.  All Europe was open to them.  As a Guise the archbishop would have been welcome wherever Spain had power.  With Spain, Italy, and Austria open to him, why should he thus bring danger and misfortune upon the petty dukedom of Sedan?  The same may be said of Soissons; however reluctant Bouillon might be to part with so dear a friend, Soissons himself should have insisted upon going and taking up his abode elsewhere.  Could he still have brought a large force into the field, and have thus risked as much as Bouillon, the case would be different, but his estates are confiscated, or, at any rate, he has no longer power to summon his vassals to the field, and he therefore risks nothing in case of defeat, while Bouillon is risking everything.”