It may surprise many to be told that the notion of Progress, which now seems so easy to apprehend, is of comparatively recent origin.  It has indeed been claimed that various thinkers, both ancient (for instance, Seneca) and medieval (for instance, Friar Bacon), had long ago conceived it.  But sporadic observations—­such as man’s gradual rise from primitive and savage conditions to a certain level of civilisation by a series of inventions, or the possibility of some future additions to his knowledge of nature—­which were inevitable at a certain stage of human reflection, do not amount to an anticipation of the idea.  The value of such observations was determined, and must be estimated, by the whole context of ideas in which they occurred.  It is from its bearings on the future that Progress derives its value, its interest, and its power.  You may conceive civilisation as having gradually advanced in the past, but you have not got the idea of Progress until you go on to conceive that it is destined to advance indefinitely in the future.  Ideas have their intellectual climates, and I propose to show briefly in this Introduction that the intellectual climates of classical antiquity and the ensuing ages were not propitious to the birth of the doctrine of Progress.  It is not till the sixteenth century that the obstacles to its appearance definitely begin to be transcended and a favourable atmosphere to be gradually prepared.

[Footnote:  The history of the idea of Progress has been treated briefly and partially by various French writers; e.g.  Comte, Cours de philosophie positive, vi. 321 sqq.; Buchez, Introduction a la science de l’histoire, i. 99 sqq. (ed. 2, 1842); Javary, De l’idee de progres (1850); Rigault, Histoire de la querelle des Anciens et des Modernes (1856); Bouillier, Histoire de la philosophie cartesienne (1854); Caro, Problemes de la morale sociale (1876); Brunetiere, La Formation de l’idee de progres, in Etudes critiques, 5e serie.  More recently M. Jules Delvaille has attempted to trace its history fully, down to the end of the eighteenth century.  His Histoire de l’idee de progres (1910) is planned on a large scale; he is erudite and has read extensively.  But his treatment is lacking in the power of discrimination.  He strikes one as anxious to bring within his net, as theoriciens du progres, as many distinguished thinkers as possible; and so, along with a great deal that is useful and relevant, we also find in his book much that is irrelevant.  He has not clearly seen that the distinctive idea of Progress was not conceived in antiquity or in the Middle Ages, or even in the Renaissance period; and when he comes to modern times he fails to bring out clearly the decisive steps of its growth.  And he does not seem to realise that a man might be “progressive” without believing in, or even thinking about, the doctrine of Progress.  Leonardo da Vinci and Berkeley are examples.  In my Ancient Greek Historians (1909) I dwelt on the modern origin of the idea (p. 253 sqq.).  Recently Mr. R. H. Murray, in a learned appendix to his Erasmus and Luther, has developed the thesis that Progress was not grasped in antiquity (though he makes an exception of Seneca),—­a welcome confirmation.]