The first point which leaps out of this extraordinarily frank disquisition is that the origin of the Twenty-one Demands is at last disclosed.  A perusal of the ten articles forming the basis of the Defensive alliance proposed by the Black Dragon Society, allows us to understand everything that occurred in Peking in the spring of 1915.  As far back as November, 1914, it was generally rumoured in Peking that Japan had a surprise of an extraordinary nature in her diplomatic archives, and that it would be merely a matter of weeks before it was sprung.  Comparing this elaborate memorandum of the Black Dragon Society with the original text of the Twenty-one Demands it is plain that the proposed plan, having been handed to Viscount Kato, had to be passed through the diplomatic filters again and again until all gritty matter had been removed, and an appearance of innocuousness given to it.  It is for this reason that the defensive alliance finally emerges as five compact little “groups” of demands, with the vital things directly affecting Chinese sovereignty labelled desiderata, so that Japanese ambassadors abroad could leave very warm assurances at every Foreign Office that there was nothing in what Japan desired which in any way conflicted with the Treaty rights of the Powers in China.  The air of mystery which surrounded the whole business from the 18th January to the 7th May—­the day of the ultimatum—­was due to the fact that Japan attempted to translate the conspiracy into terms of ordinary intercourse, only to find that in spite of the “filtering” the atmosphere of plotting could not be shaken off or the political threat adequately hidden.  There is an arresting piece of psychology in this.

The conviction expressed in the first portion of the Memorandum that bankruptcy was the rock on which the Peking administration must sooner or later split, and that the moment which Japan must seize is the outbreak of insurrections, is also highly instructive in view of what happened later.  Still more subtle is the manner in which the ultimate solution is left open:  it is consistently admitted throughout the mass of reasoning that there is no means of knowing whether suasion or force will ultimately be necessary.  Force, however, always beckons to Japan because that is the simplest formula.  And since Japan is the self-appointed defender of the dumb four hundred millions, her influence will be thrown on the side of the populace in order “to usher into China a new era of prosperity” so that China and Japan may in fact as well as in name be brought into the most intimate and vital relations with each other.