of over 6,000,000 L. And then there comes also a second
cause, tending in the same direction. During
a depressed period the savings of the country increase
considerably faster than the outlet for them.
A person who has made savings does not know what to
do with them. And this new unemployed saving
means additional money. Till a saving is invested
or employed it exists only in the form of money:
a farmer who has sold his wheat and has 100 L. ‘to
the good,’ holds that 100 L. in money, or some
equivalent for money, till he sees some advantageous
use to be made of it. Probably he places it in
a bank, and this enables it to do more work.
If 3,000,000 L. of coin be deposited in a bank, and
it need only keep 1,000,000 L. as a reserve, that
sets 2,000,000 L. free, and is for the time equivalent
to an increase of so much coin. As a principle
it may be laid down that all new unemployed savings
require
either an increased stock of the precious
metals, or an increase in the efficiency of the banking
expedients by which these metals are economised.
In other words, in a saving and uninvesting period
of the national industry, we accumulate gold, and augment
the efficiency of our gold. If therefore such
a saving period follows close upon an occasion when
foreign credits have been diminished and foreign debts
called in, the augmentation in the effective quantity
of gold in the country is extremely great. The
old money called in from abroad and the new money
representing the new saving co-operate with one another.
And their natural tendency is to cause a general rise
in price, and what is the same thing, a diffused diminution
in the purchasing power of money.
’Up to this point there is nothing special in
the recent history of the money market. Similar
events happened both after the panic of 1847, and
after that of 1857. But there is another cause
of the same kind, and acting in the same direction,
which is peculiar to the present time; this cause
is the amount of the foreign money, and especially
of the money of foreign Governments, now in London.
No Government probably ever had nearly as much at
its command as the German Government now has.
Speaking broadly, two things happened: during
the war England was the best place of shelter for foreign
money, and this made money more cheap here than it
would otherwise have been; after the war England became
the most convenient paying place, and the most convenient
resting place for money, and this again has made money
cheaper. The commercial causes, for which there
are many precedents, have been aided by a political
cause for the efficacy of which there is no precedent.