Sec. 3.  Secondary Laws can only be trusted in ‘Adjacent Cases’; that is, where the circumstances are similar to those in which the laws are known to be true.

A Derivative Law will be true wherever the forces concerned exist in the combinations upon which the law depends, if there are no counteracting conditions.  That water can be pumped to about 33 feet at the sea-level, is a derivative law on this planet:  is it true in Mars?  That depends on whether there are in Mars bodies of a liquid similar to our water; whether there is an atmosphere there, and how great its pressure is; which will vary with its height and density.  If there is no atmosphere there can be no pumping; or if there is an atmosphere of less pressure than ours, water such as ours can only be pumped to a less height than 33 feet.  Again, we know that there are arctic regions in Mars; if there are also arctic animals, are they white?  That may depend upon whether there are any beasts of prey.  If not, concealment seems to be of no use.

An Empirical Law, being one whose conditions we do not know, the extent of its prevalence is still less ascertainable.  Where it has not been actually observed to be true, we cannot trust it unless the circumstances, on the whole, resemble so closely those amongst which it has been observed, that the unknown causes, whatever they may be, are likely to prevail there.  And, even then, we cannot have much confidence in it; for there may be unknown circumstances which entirely frustrate the effect.  The first naturalist who travelled (say) from Singapore eastward by Sumatra and Java, or Borneo, and found the mammalia there similar to those of Asia, may naturally have expected the same thing in Celebes and Papua; but, if so, he was entirely disappointed; for in Papua the mammalia are marsupials like those of Australia.  Thus his empirical law, ‘The mammalia of the Eastern Archipelago are Asiatic,’ would have failed for no apparent reason.  According to Mr. Wallace, there is a reason for it, though such as could only be discovered by extensive researches; namely, that the sea is deep between Borneo and Celebes, so that they must have been separated for many ages; whereas it is shallow from Borneo westward to Asia, and also southward from Celebes to Australia; so that these regions, respectively, may have been recently united:  and the true law is that similar mammalia belong to those tracts which at comparatively recent dates have formed parts of the same continents (unless they are the remains of a former much wider distribution).

A considerable lapse of time may make an empirical law no longer trustworthy; for the forces from whose combination it resulted may have ceased to operate, or to operate in the same combination; and since we do not know what those forces were, even the knowledge that great changes have taken place in the meantime cannot enable us, after an interval, to judge whether or not the law still holds true.  New stars shine in the sky and go out; species of plants and animals become extinct; diseases die out and fresh ones afflict mankind:  all these things doubtless have their causes, but if we do not know what they are, we have no measure of the effects, and cannot tell when or where they will happen.