CHAPTER VIII

IMPRESSIONS AND REFLECTIONS

1

In the autumn of 1917 I had a visit from a subject of a neutral state, who is a pronounced upholder of general disarmament and world pacifism.  We began, of course, to discuss the theme of free competition in armaments, of militarism, which in England prevails on the sea and in Germany on land, and my visitor entered upon the various possibilities likely to occur when the war was at an end.  He had no faith in the destruction of England, nor had I; but he thought it possible that France and Italy might collapse.  The French and Italians could not possibly bear any heavier burdens than already were laid on them; in Paris and Rome, he thought, revolution was not far distant, and a fresh phase of the war would then ensue.  England and America would continue to fight on alone, for ten, perhaps even twenty, years.  England was not to be considered just a little island, but comprised Australia, India, Canada, and the sea. “L’Angleterre est imbattable,” he repeated, and America likewise.  On the other hand, the German army was also invincible.  The secession of France and Italy would greatly hinder the cruel blockade, for the resources of those two countries—­once they were conquered by the Central Powers—­were very vast, and in that case he could not see any end to the war.  Finally, the world would collapse from the general state of exhaustion.  My visitor cited the fable in which two goats met on a narrow bridge; neither would give way to the other, and they fought until they both fell into the water and were drowned.  The victory of one group as in previous wars, he continued, where the conqueror gleaned a rich harvest of gains and the vanquished had to bear all the losses, was out of the question in this present war. Tout le monde perdra, et a la fin il n’y aura que des vaincus.

I often recalled that interview later.  Much that was false and yet, as it seemed to me, much that was true lay in my friend’s words.  France and Italy did not break down; the end of the war came quicker than he thought; and the invincible Germany was defeated.  And still I think that the conclusions he arrived at came very near the truth.

The conquerors’ finances are in a very precarious state, particularly in Italy and France; unrest prevails; wages are exorbitant; discontent is general; the phantom of Bolshevism leers at them; and they live in the hope that the defeated Central Powers will have to pay, and they will thus be saved.  It was set forth in the peace terms, but ultra posse nemo tenetur, and the future will show to what extent the Central Powers can fulfil the conditions dictated to them.