Should the party be absent from the station you must leave the instructions and return to McMurdo Sound.  I do not think you should delay beyond February 24 on this service.

You should be back in McMurdo Sound at the end of February or March, and after collecting fresh news, I hope you will be able to moor the ship and await developments for at least ten days.

The term of this stay must be left entirely to your judgment, observing that whilst it is highly undesirable for you to miss the latest possible news, it would be more undesirable for you to be caught in the ice and forced to winter.

Concerning this matter I can only give you information as to what had happened in previous years: 

  Last year the Bays froze permanently on March 24. 
  Last year the Sound froze permanently on May 7 or 8.

By the Bays I mean the water south of Hut Point, inside Turtle Back Island, south of Glacier Tongue, inside the islands north of Glacier Tongue, and, I think, the western shores of the Sound.

The following gives the ice movements in the Sound in more detail: 

  March 24.-25.  Ice forming and opening with leads.
    " 26.  Sea clear.
    " 27.  Strait apparently freezing.
    " 28 (early).  Ice over whole Sound.
    " 29.  All Ice gone.
    " 30.  Freezing over. 
  April 1.  Ice out, etc.

This sort of thing continued till May, with lengthening intervals, but never more than three days of frozen sea.

The dates of freezing over in 1902 were approximately the same, except that the Sound continued to open beyond the Glacier Tongue throughout the winter.

In 1903 the Bays did not break out, but the Sound was freezing and opening in March and April as in the other years.  I think it is certain that the old ice lately broken as well as all the broken young ice drifts to the west, and that a ship on the western side of the Sound would be pretty certainly entangled at this season of the year.

I think it more than probable that you will find all the old ice broken out when you return from the north, and the Bay south of Cape Armitage completely open.

If so, this seems to me to be a good place for you to wait, moored to the edge of the Barrier, if possible.  Young ice will constantly form about you, but I do not think you need fear its detaining you until after the third week in March.  I am afraid it may be very cold and unpleasant waiting in such a situation, and possibly better and safer conditions for the ship can be found farther to the west and nearer to the decayed Glacier ice south of Black Island.

Moored here the ship would have a clear sea to leeward, whereas in the Bay beyond Cape Armitage she might have a lee shore.  You will know best how to make a good permanent ice anchor.

There are shoals off Cape Armitage which may extend for one or even two miles, and careful navigation is needed in this immediate vicinity.  The shoals off Hut Point and the west side of the Peninsula do not extend more than a ship’s length from the shore.  Otherwise, except inside the Islands, I believe the Sound to be free from such dangers.