Americans should not forget that this war has brought about the greatest contraction in ocean tonnage that has ever been seen.  I estimate that about one fourth of the world’s oversea tonnage has been commandeered, interned, or put out of service.  Before the war the Germans had nearly one eighth of the world’s mercantile tonnage.  That is now interned, destroyed, or tied up, outside the trade on the Baltic.  As much more has been taken by the Allies from the mercantile to the war marine.  It must also be figured that the Baltic and other seas hold locked-in ships, and the bottom of the sea likewise holds some more.

Considering the sudden demand upon the world’s mercantile tonnage and its sudden curtailment, it is surprising that ocean commerce has not been more interfered with or made to pay even higher rates than the abnormal ones now existing.

Of war-tonnage, besides three superdreadnoughts purchased and four finished before the end of 1914, the British have under construction to be finished in 1915 ten battleships of from 25,500 to 27,500 tons, armed with 15-inch guns.  The French have finished four of 23,000 tons, with 13 1/2-inch guns, and are finishing three more.  The Russians are at work upon six of 23,000 tons, with 12-inch guns.  The Japanese are building one superdreadnought of 30,000 tons, with 14-inch guns, and three battle-cruisers of 27,500 tons and 27-knot speed, with 14-inch guns.

Churchill, it will be remembered, figured that England could lose one battleship each month and still maintain her full strength.  While the building of war-tonnage seems to be well in hand, there is no corresponding replacement of mercantile tonnage.

I have the highest authority for the statement that the world possesses no machinery at the present time to manufacture war-material at the rate at which the nations of Europe have been using it during the first hundred days of the war.

At one time the German armies were exploding 120,000 shells a day in France and Belgium.  The response from the French alone was 80,000 shells a day, and General Joffre made a request that his supply be put up to 100,000 per day.  This is for shells of all sizes, and the estimate to me was of an average cost of two pounds, or ten dollars, per shell.  Some of the big German shells cost as high as $500 each.  In some kinds of shrapnel, holding 300 bullets, there are more than thirty pieces of mechanism.

Within forty-eight hours after England declared war she had engaged the total output of an American manufacturer, whose machinery was an important part of the shell-making business.  An American factory in Connecticut received orders for $25,000,000 worth of cartridges which would mean, at five cents a cartridge, 500,000,000 rounds of ammunition.  I know of a single order to America from England for 10,000,000 horseshoes.

Through a single agency in America more than $150,000,000 worth of war-supplies was placed several weeks ago.  I do not know whether this included a single order, of which I have knowledge, for 3,000,000 American rifles, delivered over three years at $30 a rifle, or $90,000,000.  The company receiving this order had to work so quickly to install new machinery that old buildings were dynamited to clear the land.