The wheat crop is estimated, as before, slightly in excess of 400,000,000 bushels.
The cotton product, as shown by the December returns, is about 6,000,000 bales. There will be another investigation after the close of the cotton harvest and the shipment of a large portion of the crop, when precise results will be approached more nearly than has been possible hitherto.
The Department evidently feels a little “nettled” over the criticisms that have been made upon its estimates of the last two corn crops. Again we must protest that the amount of harvested corn in the West will fall considerably below Mr. Dodge’s figures. Whether or not the Department sees fit to “reduce the product to the equivalent of merchantable corn” such an estimate would be of interest, and when it gives the result of the feeding quality of the corn, there will be something of a basis furnished for such a calculation, especially as we shall have by that time a pretty accurate account of the exported corn of the crop of 1883 and the amount “in sight,” as the grain merchants say. It is true that there is nothing gained to consumers by “suppressing truth on the one hand or exaggerating losses on the other” but there is something lost to consumers by overestimating yields at about the time the harvest is ready and when speculators can use Government estimates to force down prices.
The statistical machinery of the Department of Agriculture is far from perfect, but it is the best the Government has supplied it with, and it is not wise or fair to criticise its estimates too severely, based, as they often must be, upon inadequate returns. The most that can be said is that the Department should be exceedingly careful not to err on the side that may result in injury to the producers, for, as we understand it, it was created solely to advance their interests.