Nobody knows what the two colonels saw over Carson Sink.  However, it is always possible to speculate.  Maybe they just thought they were close enough to the three objects to see them plainly.  The objects might have been three F-86’s:  maybe Flight Service lost the records.  It could be that the three F-86’s had taken off to fly in the local area of their base but had decided to do some illegal sight-seeing.  Flight Service would have no record of a flight like this.  Maybe both of the colonels had hallucinations.

There is a certain mathematical probability that any one of the above speculative answers is correct—­correct for this one case.  If you try this type of speculation on hundreds of sightings with “unknown” answers, the probability that the speculative answers are correct rapidly approaches zero.

Maybe the colonels actually did see what they thought they did, a type of craft completely foreign to them.

Another good ufo report provides an incident in which there is hardly room for any speculation of this type.  The conclusion is more simply, “Unknown,” period.

On January 20, 1952, at seven-twenty in the evening, two master sergeants, both intelligence specialists, were walking down a street on the Fairchild Air Force Base, close to Spokane, Washington.

Suddenly both men noticed a large, bluish-white, spherical-shaped object approaching from the east.  They stopped and watched the object carefully, because several of these UFO’s had been reported by pilots from the air base over the past few months.  The sergeants had written up the reports on these earlier sightings.

The object was traveling at a moderately fast speed on a horizontal path.  As it passed to the north of their position and disappeared in the west, the sergeants noted that it had a long blue tail.  At no time did they hear any sound.  They noted certain landmarks that the object had crossed and estimated the time taken in passing these landmarks.  The next day they went out and measured the angles between these landmarks in order to include them in their report.

When we got the report at ATIC, our first reaction was that the master sergeants had seen a large meteor.  From the evidence I had written off, as meteors, all previous similar ufo reports from this air base.

The sergeants’ report, however, contained one bit of information that completely changed the previous picture.  At the time of the sighting there had been a solid 6,000-foot-thick overcast at 4,700 feet.  And meteors don’t go that low.

A few quick calculations gave a rather fantastic answer.  If the object was just at the base of the clouds it would have been 10,000 feet from the two observers and traveling 1,400 miles per hour.

But regardless of the speed, the story was still fantastic.  The object was no jet airplane because there was no sound.  It was not a searchlight because there were none on the air base.  It was not an automobile spotlight because a spotlight will not produce the type of light the sergeants described.  As a double check, however, both men were questioned on this point.  They stated firmly that they had seen hundreds of searchlights and spotlights playing on clouds, and that this was not what they saw.