enormous benefits on their own country; and they held
that the object-lesson thus afforded might very probably
induce other nations speedily to follow the example
of England. They forgot that the special conditions
which existed at the time their noble aspirations
were conceived were liable to change; that the extraordinary
advantages which Free Trade for a time secured were
largely due to the fact that seventy years ago England
possessed a far larger supply of mechanical aptitude
than any other country; that her marked commercial
supremacy, which was then practically undisputed,
could not be fully maintained in the face of the advance
likely to be made by other nations; that if those
nations persisted in adhering to Protection, their
progress—which has really been achieved,
not by reason of, but in spite of Protection—would
almost inevitably be mainly attributed to their fiscal
policy to the exclusion of other contributory causes,
such as education; and that thus a revived demand
for protective measures would not improbably arise,
even in England itself. These are, in fact, the
results which have accrued. Without doubt, it
was difficult to foresee them, but it is worthy of
note that, in spite of all adverse and possibly ephemeral
appearances, symptoms are not wanting which encourage
the belief that the prescience of the early Free Traders
may, in the end, be tardily vindicated. It is
the irony of current politics that at a time when
England is meditating a return to Protection—but
is as yet, I am glad to say, very far from being persuaded
that the adoption of such a policy would be wise—the
most advanced thinkers in some Protectionist states
are beginning to turn their eyes towards the possibility
and desirability of casting aside those swaddling-clothes
which were originally assumed in order to foster their
budding industries. Many of the most competent
German economists, whilst advocating Protection as
a temporary measure, have for many years fully recognised
that, when once a country has firmly established its
industrial and commercial status in the markets of
the world, it can best maintain and extend its acquired
position by permitting the freest possible trade.
Even Friedrich List, though an ardent Protectionist,
“always had before him universal Free Trade as
the goal of his endeavours."[62] Before long, Germany
will have well-nigh completed the transition from
agriculture to manufactures in which she has been
engaged for the last thirty or forty years; and when
that transition is fully accomplished, it may be predicted
with some degree of confidence that a nation so highly
educated, and endowed with so keen a perception of
cause and effect, will begin to move in the direction
of Free Trade. Similarly, in the United States
of America, the campaign which has recently been waged
against the huge Trusts, which are the offspring of
Protection, as well as the rising complaints of the
dearness of living, are so many indications that arguments,
which must eventually lead to the consideration—and
probably to the ultimate adoption—if not
of Free Trade, at all events of Freer Trade than now
prevails, are gradually gaining ground. Much
the same may be said of Canada. A Canadian gentleman,
who can speak with authority on the subject, recently
wrote: