850 million pounds in 1817
841    "      "    "  1842
836    "      "    "  1857
659    "      "    "  1895
800    "      "    "  1903

and before this last war it had been reduced to 707 million pounds.  In 1920, of course, it was over 8000 million pounds.  Such incidents as the Crimean and the Boer wars added materially to the debt, but apart therefrom you will see that there is no tremendous relief by way of capital repayment to the original debt.  Similarly, in a hundred years, even if we have no big wars, it is quite possible we may have additions to the national debt from smaller causes.  Yet the volume of the debt per head fell from L50 to L15.7, so you will see that the increasing population made an enormous difference.  The real burden of the debt is of course felt mainly in its annual charge.  I will take this, therefore, rather than the capital:—­

In 1817 the charge was 32 million pounds " 1842 " " " 28 " " " 1857 " " " 28.8 " " In 1895 the charge was 25 million pounds " 1903 " " " 27 " " " 1914 " " " 24 " "

Here you will see that the reduction from 32 to 24 was 25 per cent. or a much greater reduction than the reduction of the total capital debt, and this, of course, was contributed to by the lower rates of interest which had been brought about from time to time.  When we take the annual charge per head the fall is much more striking.  In the hundred years it decreased from 37s. to 10s.  This, however, was a money reduction, and the real burden per head can only be judged after we have considered what the purchasing power of that money was.  Now, the charge per head, reduced to a common basis of purchasing power, fell as follows:—­

Index figure
1817       260
1842       242
1857       191
1895       210
1914       118

In the year 1920 the charge per head was L7.16 and my purchasing power index figure 629.  You will see that the real burden in commodities moved down much less violently than the money burden, and the relief was not actually so great as it looks, because prices were far lower in 1914 than they were early in the nineteenth century.

In view of the fact that our debt is approximately ten times that of the last century, let us ask ourselves the broad question:  “Can we look forward to nothing better than the reduction of our debt by 450 millions in thirty-seven years?”

The nineteenth century was one long contest between two opposing forces.  The increase in the population, together with the power to make wealth, were together enormously effective in decreasing the burden.  Against them was the ultimate tendency to lower prices, and the former of these two forces slowly won the day.

I hesitate to say that we can expect anything at all comparable with the wonderful leap forward in productive power during the early Victorian era.  I hope that in this I may prove to be wrong.  Anyway I do not think that in our lifetime we can expect these islands to double their population.