Yet a loan of from L50,000,000 to L100,000,000—­and I repeat that even this figure is very optimistic except as the result of a settlement of a kind which engaged the active goodwill of individual Germans with foreign resources and of foreigners of German origin and sympathies—­would only cover Germany’s liabilities under the London Schedule for four to six months, and the temporarily reduced payments of last March for little more than a year.  And from such a loan, after meeting Belgian priorities and Army of Occupation costs, there would not be left any important sum for France.

I see no possibility, therefore, of any final settlement with M. Poincare in the immediate future.  He has now reached the point of saying that he is prepared to talk sense in return for an enormous bribe, and that is some progress.  But as no one is in a position to offer him the bribe, it is not much progress, and as the force of events will compel him to talk sense sooner or later, even without a bribe, his bargaining position is not strong.  In the meantime he may make trouble.  If so, it can’t be helped.  But it will do him no good, and may even help to bring nearer the inevitable day of disillusion.  I may add that for France to agree to a short moratorium is not a great sacrifice since, on account of the Belgian priority and other items, the amount of cash to which France will be entitled in the near future, even if the payments fixed last March were to be paid in full, is quite trifling.

A POLICY FOR THE LIBERAL PARTY

So much for the immediate situation and the politics of the case.  If we look forward a little, I venture to think that there is a clear, simple, and practical policy for the Liberal Party to adopt and to persist in.  Both M. Poincare and Mr. Lloyd George have their hands tied by their past utterances.  Mr. Lloyd George’s part in the matter of Reparations is the most discreditable episode in his career.  It is not easy for him, whose hands are not clean in the matter, to give us a clean settlement.  I say this although his present intentions appear to be reasonable.  All the more reason why others should pronounce and persist in a clear and decided policy.  I was disappointed, if I may say so, in what Lord Grey had to say about this at Newcastle last week.  He said many wise things, but not a word of constructive policy which could get any one an inch further forward.  He seemed to think that all that was necessary was to talk to the French sympathetically and to put our trust in international bankers.  He puts a faith in an international loan as the means of solution which I am sure is not justified.  We must be much more concrete than that, and we must be prepared to say unpleasant things as well as pleasant ones.