Observe what has happened to Great Britain during recent years.  When she was ruled by that extremely clear-headed though obstinate statesman, Lord Salisbury, she remained, at his advice, outside the circle of continental entanglements and rejoiced in what was known as a policy of “Splendid Isolation.”  It was, of course, a selfish policy.  It rested on sound geographical grounds, because, making use of the fortunate accident that Great Britain is an island, it suggested that she could pursue her own commercial career and, thanks to the English Channel, let the whole of the rest of the world go hang.  Such a position could not possibly last, partly because Great Britain is not only an island, but also an empire scattered over the seven seas; partly because we could not remain alien from those social and economic interests which necessarily link our career with continental nations.  So we became part of the continental system, and it became necessary for us to choose friends and partners and mark off other peoples as our enemies.  It might have been possible a certain number of years ago for us to join the Triple Alliance.  At one time Prince Buelow seemed anxious that we should do so, and Mr. Chamberlain on our side was by no means unwilling.  But gradually we discovered that Germany was intensely jealous of us as a colonial power and as a great sea-power, and for this reason, as well as for others, we preferred to compose our ancient differences with France and promote an understanding between English and French as the nearest of neighbours and the most convenient of allies.  Observe, however, that every step in the process was a challenge, and a challenge which the rival aimed at could not possibly ignore.  The conclusion of the French Entente Cordiale in 1904, the launching of the Dreadnought in 1906, the formation of the Russian agreement in 1907, and certain changes which we made in our own army were obviously intended as warnings to Germany that we were dangerous people to attack.[5] Germany naturally sought reprisals in her fashion, and gradually Europe was transformed into a huge armed camp, divided into two powerful organisations which necessarily watched each other with no friendly gaze.

[5] See The War of Steel and Gold, by H.N.  Brailsford (Bell)—­opening chapter on “The Balance of Power.”

BALANCE OR CONCERT?

I do not say that the course of events could possibly have been altered.  When once we became part of the continental system, it was necessary for us to choose between friends and enemies.  I only say that if diplomacy calls itself an agency for preventing war, it cannot be said to be altogether successful.  Its famous doctrine of a Balance of Power is in reality a mere phrase.  If one combination be represented as X and the other as Y, and X increases itself up to X^2, it becomes necessary that Y should similarly increase itself to Y^2, a process which, clearly, does