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PDFIn drawing more exact conclusions, the returns must be deemed to refer not to a group of 207 F.R.S., because they are not a fair sample of the whole body of 467, and, for reasons already given, they are too rich in noteworthiness for the one and too poor for the other. They will, therefore, be referred to the number that is the mean of these two limits—namely, to 337. I am aware of no obvious guidance to any better hypothesis.
The value of the expectation that noteworthiness would be found in any specified kinsman of an F.R.S., of whom nothing else is known, may be easily calculated from Table VII. on the two hypotheses already mentioned and justified: (1) That the figures should be taken to refer to 337, and not to 207; (2) that 1 per cent. of the generality are noteworthy—that is to say, there are 3.37 noteworthies to every 337 persons of the generality.
TABLE VII.—NUMBER
OF NOTEWORTHY KINSMEN RECORDED
IN 207 RETURNS.
__________________________________________________________
| Kinship. | Numbers || Kinship.
| Numbers |
| | Recorded.||
| Recorded. |
|_________________|__________||________________|
__________|
| | ||
| |
| fa | 81 || ---
| --- |
| bro | 104 || ---
| --- |
| | ||
| |
| fa fa | 40 || fa fa
fa | 11 |
| me fa | 42 || fa me
fa | 2 |
| fa bro | 45 || me fa
fa | 5 |
| me bro | 52 || me me
fa | 1 |
| | ||
| |
| fa bro son | 30 || fa fa
bro | 12 |
| me bro son | 19 || fa me
bro | 2 |
| fa si son | 28 || me fa
bro | 6 |
| me si son | 22 || me me
bro | 2 |
|_________________|__________||________________|___________|
Thus, for the fathers of F.R.S., 81 are recorded as noteworthy, against 3.37 of fathers of the generality—that is, they are 24.1 times as numerous. For the first cousins of F.R.S. there are 99 noteworthies, divided amongst four kinds of male first-cousins, or 24.75 on an average to each kind, against the 3.37 of the generality—that is, they are 7.3 times as numerous.
On this principle the expectation of noteworthiness in a kinsman of an F.R.S. (or of other noteworthy person) is greater in the following proportion than in one who has no such kinsman: If he be a father, 24 times as great; if a brother, 31 times; if a grandfather, 12 times; if an uncle, 14 times; if a male first cousin, 7 times; if a great-great-grandfather on the paternal line, 31/2 times.
