(more people going away) and sadder—­more wounded coming back and more visible sorrow.  We seem to be settling down to something that is more or less like Paris—­so far less, but it may become more and more like it.  And the confident note of an earlier period is accompanied by a dull undertone of much less cheerfulness.  The end is—­in the lap of the gods.

     W.H.P.

     To Arthur W. Page

     American Embassy, London,

     July 25, 1915.

     DEAR ARTHUR: 

...  Many men here are very active in their thought about the future relations of the United States and Great Britain.  Will the war bring or leave them closer together?  If the German machine be completely smashed (and it may not be completely smashed) the Japanese danger will remain.  I do not know how to estimate that danger accurately.  But there is such a danger.  And, if the German wild beast ever come to life again, there’s an eternal chance of trouble with it.  For defensive purposes it may become of the very first importance that the whole English-speaking world should stand together—­not in entangling alliance, but with a much clearer understanding than we have ever yet had.  I’ll indicate to you some of my cogitations on this subject by trying to repeat what I told Philip Kerr[17] a fortnight ago—­one Sunday in the country.  I can write this to you without seeming to parade my own opinions.—­Kerr is one of “The Round Table,” perhaps the best group of men here for the real study and free discussion of large political subjects.  Their quarterly, The Round Table, is the best review, I dare say, in the world.  Kerr is red hot for a close and perfect understanding between Great Britain and the United States.  I told him that, since Great Britain had only about forty per cent. of the white English-speaking people and the United States had about sixty per cent., I hoped in his natural history that the tail didn’t wag the dog.  I went on: 

“You now have the advantage of us in your aggregation of three centuries of accumulated wealth—­the spoil of all the world—­and in the talent that you have developed for conserving it and adding to it and in the institutions you have built up to perpetuate it—­your merchant ships, your insurance, your world-wide banking, your mortgages on all new lands; but isn’t this the only advantage you have?  This advantage will pass.  You are now shooting away millions and millions, and you will have a debt that is bound to burden industry.  On our side, we have a more recently mixed race than yours; you’ve begun to inbreed.  We have also (and therefore) more adaptability, a greater keenness of mind in our masses; we are Old-World men set free—­free of classes and traditions and all that they connote.  Your so-called democracy is far behind ours.  Your aristocracy and your privileges necessarily bring a social and economic burden.  Half your people look backward.

     “Your leadership rests on your wealth and on the power that you’ve
     built on your wealth.”