“I assure you (and there are plenty of facts to prove it) that this Government (both for unselfish and selfish reasons) puts a higher value on our friendship than on any similar thing in the world.  They will go—­they are going—­the full length to keep it.  But, in proportion to our tendency to nag them about little things will the value set on our friendship diminish and will their confidence in our sincerity decline.”

* * * * *

The note which Lord Bryce and Lord Northcliffe so dreaded reached the London Embassy in October, 1915.  The State Department had spent nearly six months in preparing it; it was the American answer to the so-called blockade established by the Order in Council of the preceding March.  Evidently its contents fulfilled the worst forebodings: 

     To Edward M. House

     London, November 12, 1915.

     DEAR HOUSE: 

I have a great respect for the British Navy.  Admiral Jellicoe now has under his command 3,000 ships of all sorts-far and away the biggest fleet, I think, that was ever assembled.  For the first time since the ocean was poured out, one navy practically commands all the seas:  nothing sails except by its grace.  It is this fleet of course that will win the war.  The beginning of the end—­however far off yet the end may be—­is already visible by reason of the economic pressure on Germany.  But for this fleet, by the way, London would be in ruins, all its treasure looted; every French seacoast city and the Italian peninsula would be as Belgium and Poland are; and thousands of English women would be violated—­just as dead French girls are found in many German trenches that have been taken in France.  Hence I greatly respect the British fleet.

We have a good navy, too, for its size, and a naval personnel as good as any afloat.  I hear—­with much joy—­that we are going to make our navy bigger—­as much bigger (God save the mark!) as Bryan will permit.

Now, whatever the future bring, since any fighting enterprise that may ever be thrust on us will be just and justified, we must see to it that we win, as doubtless we shall and as hitherto we always have won.  We must be dead sure of winning.  Well, whatever fight may be thrust on us by anybody, anywhere, at any time, for any reason—­if it only be generally understood beforehand that our fleet and the British fleet shoot the same language, there’ll be no fight thrust upon us.  The biggest bully in the world wouldn’t dare kick the sorriest dog we have.  Here, therefore, is a Peace Programme for you—­the only basis for a permanent peace in the world.  There’s no further good in having venerable children build houses of sand at The Hague; there’s no further good in peace organizations or protective leagues to enforce peace.  We had as well get down to facts.  So far as ensuring peace is concerned the biggest fact in the world is the