1.  The German submarines are succeeding to a degree that the public knows nothing about.  These two things are true:  (a) The Germans are building submarines faster than the English sink them.  In this way, therefore, they are steadily gaining. (b) The submarines are sinking freight ships faster than freight ships are being built by the whole world.  In this way, too, then, the Germans are succeeding.  Now if this goes on long enough, the Allies’ game is up.  For instance, they have lately sunk so many fuel oil ships, that this country may very soon be in a perilous condition—­even the Grand Fleet may not have enough fuel.  Of course the chance is that oil ships will not continue to fall victims to the U-boats and we shall get enough through to replenish the stock.  But this illustrates the danger, and it is a very grave danger.

The best remedy so far worked out is the destroyer.  The submarines avoid destroyers and they sink very, very few ships that are convoyed.  If we had destroyers enough to patrol the whole approach (for, say, 250 miles) to England, the safety of the sea would be very greatly increased; and if we had enough to patrol and to convoy every ship going and coming, the damage would be reduced to a minimum.  The Admiral and I are trying our best to get our Government to send over 500 improvised destroyers—­yachts, ocean-going tugs—­any kind of swift craft that can be armed.  Five hundred such little boats might end the war in a few months; for the Germans are keeping the spirit of their people and of their army up by their submarine success.  If that success were stopped they’d have no other cry half so effective.  If they could see this in Washington as we see it, they’d do it and do it not halfway but with a vengeance.  If they don’t do it, the war may be indefinitely prolonged and a wholly satisfactory peace may never be made.  The submarine is the most formidable thing the war has produced—­by far—­and it gives the German the only earthly chance he has to win.  And he may substantially win by it yet.  That’s what the British conceal.  In fact, half of them do not see it or believe it.  But nothing is truer, or plainer.  One hundred thousand submarine chasers next year may be worth far less than 500 would be worth now, for next year see how few ships may be left!  The mere arming of ships is not enough.  Nearly all that are sunk are armed.  The submarine now carries a little periscope and a big one, each painted the colour of the sea.  You can’t see a little periscope except in an ocean as smooth as glass.  It isn’t bigger than a coffee cup.  The submarine thus sinks its victims without ever emerging or ever being seen.  As things now stand, the Germans are winning the war, and they are winning it on the sea; that’s the queer and the most discouraging fact.  My own opinion is that all