If enough submarines can be destroyed in the next two or three months, the war will be won, and if we can contribute effective help immediately, it will be won directly by our aid.  I cannot exaggerate the pressing and increasing danger of this situation.  Thirty or more destroyers and other similar craft sent by us immediately would very likely be decisive.

     There is no time to be lost.

     (Signed) PAGE.

This cablegram had a certain effect.  The reply came from Washington that “eventually” thirty-six destroyers would be sent.

* * * * *

Page’s letters of this period are full of the same subject.

     To the President

     London, May 4, 1917.

     Dear Mr. President: 

The submarines have become a very grave danger.  The loss of British and allied tonnage increases with the longer and brighter days—­as I telegraphed you, 237,000 tons last week; and the worst of it is, the British are not destroying them.  The Admiralty publishes a weekly report which, though true, is not the whole truth.  It is known in official circles here that the Germans are turning out at least two a week—­some say three; and the British are not destroying them as fast as new ones are turned out.  If merely the present situation continue, the war will pretty soon become a contest of endurance under hunger, with an increasing proportion of starvation.  Germany is yet much the worse off, but it will be easily possible for Great Britain to suffer to the danger point next winter or earlier unless some decided change be wrought in this situation.

The greatest help, I hope, can come from us—­our destroyers and similar armed craft—­provided we can send enough of them quickly.  The area to be watched is so big that many submarine hunters are needed.  Early in the war the submarines worked near shore.  There are very many more of them now and their range is one hundred miles, or even two hundred, at sea.

The public is becoming very restive with its half information, and it is more and more loudly demanding all the facts.  There are already angry threats to change the personnel of the Admiralty; there is even talk of turning out the Government.  “We must have results, we must have results.”  I hear confidentially that Jellicoe has threatened to resign unless the Salonica expedition is brought back:  to feed and equip that force requires too many ships.

And there are other troubles impending.  Norway has lost so many of her ships that she dare not send what are left to sea.  Unarmed they’ll all perish.  If she arms them, Germany will declare war against her.  There is a plan on foot for the British to charter these Norwegian ships and to arm them, taking the risk of German war against Norway.  If war comes (as it is expected) England must then defend Norway the best she