Embassy of the United States of America,
     April 1, 1917.

In these last days, before the United States is forced into war—­by the people’s insistence—­the preceding course of events becomes even clearer than it was before; and it has been as clear all the time as the nose on a man’s face.

The President began by refusing to understand the meaning of the war.  To him it seemed a quarrel to settle economic rivalries between Germany and England.  He said to me last September[53] that there were many causes why Germany went to war.  He showed a great degree of toleration for Germany; and he was, during the whole morning that I talked with him, complaining of England.  The controversies we had with England were, of course, mere by-products of the conflict.  But to him they seemed as important as the controversy we had with Germany.  In the beginning he had made—­as far as it was possible—­neutrality a positive quality of mind.  He would not move from that position.

     That was his first error of judgment.  And by insisting on this he
     soothed the people—­sat them down in comfortable chairs and said,
     “Now stay there.”  He really suppressed speech and thought.

The second error he made was in thinking that he could play a great part as peacemaker—­come and give a blessing to these erring children.  This was strong in his hopes and ambitions.  There was a condescension in this attitude that was offensive.

     He shut himself up with these two ideas and engaged in what he
     called “thought.”  The air currents of the world never ventilated
     his mind.

This inactive position he has kept as long as public sentiment permitted.  He seems no longer to regard himself nor to speak as a leader—­only as the mouthpiece of public opinion after opinion has run over him.

     He has not breathed a spirit into the people:  he has encouraged
     them to supineness.  He is not a leader, but rather a stubborn
     phrasemaker.

     And now events and the aroused people seem to have brought the
     President to the necessary point of action; and even now he may act
     timidly.

* * * * *

“One thing pleases me,” Page wrote to his son Arthur, “I never lost faith in the American people.  It is now clear that I was right in feeling that they would have gladly come in any time after the Lusitania crime.  Middle West in the front, and that the German hasn’t made any real impression on the American nation.  He was made a bug-a-boo and worked for all he was worth by Bernstorff; and that’s the whole story.  We are as Anglo-Saxon as we ever were.  If Hughes had had sense and courage enough to say:  ’I’m for war, war to save our honour and to save democracy,’ he would now be President.  If Wilson had said that, Hughes would have carried no important states