On one point, indeed, Colonel House afterward called the Ambassador to account.  When America was preparing to raise armies by the millions and to spend its treasure by the billions, he reminded Page of his statement that the severance of diplomatic relations “would probably not cost us a man in battle nor any considerable treasure.”  Page’s statement in this November letter merely reiterated a conviction which for more than a year he had been forcing upon the President and Colonel House—­that the dismissal of Bernstorff would not necessarily imply war with Germany, but that it would in itself be enough to bring the war to an end.  On this point Page never changed his mind, as is evident from the letter which he wrote to Colonel House when this matter was called to his attention: 

     To Edward M. House

     London, June 29, 1917.

     MY DEAR HOUSE: 

I never put any particular value on my own prophecies nor on anybody else’s.  I have therefore no pride as a prophet.  Yet I do think that I hit it off accurately a year or a year and a half ago when I said that we could then have ended the war without any appreciable cost.  And these are my reasons: 

     If we had then come in and absolutely prevented supplies from
     reaching Germany, as we are now about to do, the war would then
     have been much sooner ended than it can now be ended: 

     (1) Our supplies enabled her to go on.

     (2) She got time in this way to build her great submarine fleet. 
     She went at it the day she promised the President to reform.

     (3) She got time and strength to overrun Rumania whence she got
     food and oil; and continues to get it.

     (4) During this time Russia fell down as a military force and gave
     her more time, more armies for France and more supplies.  Russian
     guns have been sold to the Germans.

     If a year and a half ago we had starved her out, it would have been
     over before any of these things happened.  This delay is what will
     cost us billions and billions and men and men.

And it cost us one thing more.  During the neutrality period we were as eager to get goods to the little neutral states which were in large measure undoubtedly bound to Germany as we are now eager to keep them out.  Grey, who was and is our best friend, and who was unwilling to quarrel with us more than he was obliged to, was thrown out of office and his career ended because the blockade, owing to his consideration for us, was not tight enough.  Our delay caused his fall.

But most of all, it gave the Germans time (and to some extent material) to build their present fleet of submarines.  They were at work on them all the while and according to the best opinion here they continue to build them faster than the British destroy them; and the submarines