Before I came from Prides[102] I was fearful lest Straus, Bernstorff, and others would drive the President into doing something unwise.  I have always counselled him to remain quiet for the moment and let matters unfold themselves further.  In the meantime, I have been conferring with Bernstorff, with Dumba[103], and, of course, Spring Rice.  The President now wants me to keep in touch with the situation, and I do not think there is any danger of any one on the outside injecting himself into it unless Mr. Bryan does something on his own initiative.

Both Bernstorff and Dumba say that their countries are ready for peace talks, but the difficulty is with England.  Sir Cecil says their statements are made merely to place England in a false position.

The attitude, I think, for England to maintain is the one which she so ably put forth to the world.  That is, peace must come only upon condition of disarmament and must be permanent.  I have a feeling that Germany will soon be willing to discuss terms.  I do not agree that Germany has to be completely crushed and that terms must be made either in Berlin or London.  It is manifestly against England’s interest and the interest of Europe generally for Russia to become the dominating military force in Europe, just as Germany was.  The dislike which England has for Germany should not blind her to actual conditions.  If Germany is crushed, England cannot solely write the terms of peace, but Russia’s wishes must also largely prevail.

With Russia strong in militarism, there is no way by which she could be reached.  Her government is so constituted that friendly conversations could not be had with her as they might be had even with such a power as Germany, and the world would look forward to another cataclysm and in the not too distant future.

When peace conversations begin, at best, they will probably continue many months before anything tangible comes from them.  England and the Allies could readily stand on the general proposition that only enduring peace will satisfy them and I can see no insuperable obstacle in the way.

The Kaiser did not want war and was not responsible for it further than his lack of foresight which led him to build up a formidable engine of war which later dominated him.  Peace cannot be made until the war party in Germany find that their ambitions cannot be realized, and this, I think, they are beginning to know.

When the war is ended and the necessary territorial alignments made, it seems to me, the best guaranty of peace could be brought by every nation in Europe guaranteeing the territorial integrity of every other nation[104].  By confining the manufacture of arms to the governments themselves and by permitting representatives of all nations to inspect, at any time, the works[105].

Then, too, all sources of national