TO THOMAS PAINE.

Paris, May 19,1789.

Dear Sir,

Your favors of February the 16th to April the 13th, and of May the 3rd and 10th, are received; and the two last are sent to Mr. Leroy, who will communicate them to the Academy.

You know that the States General have met, and probably have seen the speeches at the opening of them.  The three orders sit in distinct chambers.  The great question, whether they shall vote by orders or persons can never be surmounted amicably.  It has not yet been proposed in form; but the votes which have been taken on the outworks of that question show, that the Tiers-Etat are unanimous, a good majority of the Clergy (consisting of the Cures) disposed to side with the Tiers-Etat, and in the chamber of the Noblesse there are only fifty-four in that sentiment, against one hundred and ninety, who are for voting by orders.  Committees to find means of conciliation are appointed by each chamber; but conciliation is impossible.  Some think the Nobles could be induced to unite themselves with the higher Clergy into one House, the lower Clergy and Tiers-Etat forming another.  But the Tiers-Etat are immovable.  They are not only firm, but a little disdainful.  The question is, what will ensue?  One idea is to separate, in order to consult again their constituents, and to take new instructions.  This would be doing nothing, for the same instructions would be repeated; and what, in the mean time, is to become of a government absolutely without money, and which cannot be kept in motion with less than a million of livres a day?  The more probable expectation is as follows.  As soon as it shall become evident, that no amicable determination of the manner of voting can take place, the Tiers-Etat will send an invitation to the two other orders, to come and take their places in the common chamber.  A majority of the Clergy will go, and the minority of the Noblesse.  The chamber thus composed, will declare that the States General are constituted, will notify it to the King, and that they are ready to proceed to business.  If the King refuses to do business with them, and adheres to the Nobles, the common chamber will declare all taxes at an end, will form a declaration of rights, and do such other acts as the circumstances will permit, and go home.  The tax-gatherers will then be resisted, and it may well be doubted whether the soldiery and their officers will not divide, as the Tiers-Etat and Nobles.  But it is more likely that the King will agree to do business with the States General, so constituted, professing that the necessities of the moment force this, and that he means to negotiate (as they go along) a reconciliation between the seceding members, and those which remain.  If the matter takes this turn, there may be small troubles and ebullitions excited by the seceding Noblesse and higher Clergy; but no serious difficulty can arise.