LETTER CLXXI.—­TO JOHN JAY, November 29, 1788

TO JOHN JAY.

Paris, November 29, 1788.

Sir,

In the hurry of making up my letter of the 19th instant, I omitted the enclosed printed paper, on the subject of whale-oil.  That omission is now supplied by another conveyance, by the way of London.  The explanatory Arret is not yet come out.  I still take for granted, it will pass, though there be an opposition to it in the Council.  In the mean time, orders are given to receive our oils which may arrive.  The apprehension of a want of corn has induced them to turn their eyes to foreign supplies; and to show their preference of receiving them from us, they have passed the enclosed Arret, giving a premium on wheat and flour from the United States, for a limited time.  This, you will doubtless think proper to have translated and published.  The Notables are still in session:  the votes of the separate bureaux have not yet been reduced to a joint act, in an assembly of the whole.  I see no reason to suppose they will change the separate votes relative to the representation of the Tiers Etat in the States General.  In the mean time, the stream of public indignation, heretofore directed against the court, sets strongly against the Notables.  It is not yet decided when the States will meet:  but certainly they cannot, till February or March.  The Turks have retired across the Danube.  This movement indicates their going into winter-quarters, and the severity of the weather must hasten it.  The thermometer was yesterday at eight degrees of Fahrenheit, that is, twenty-four degrees below freezing; a degree of cold equal to that of the year 1740, which they count here among their coldest winters.  This having continued many days, and being still likely to continue, and the wind from northeast, render it probable, that all enterprise must be suspended between the three great belligerent powers.  Poland is likely to be thrown into great convulsions.  The Empress of Russia has peremptorily demanded such aids from Poland, as might engage it in the war.  The King of Prussia, on the other hand, threatens to march an army on their borders.  The vote of the Polish confederacy for one hundred thousand men, was a coalition of the two parties, in that single act only.  The party opposed to the King, have obtained a majority, and have voted that this army shall be independent of him.  They are supported by Prussia, while the King depends on Russia.  Authentic information from England leaves not a doubt, that the King is lunatic; and that, instead of the effect, is the cause of the illness, under which he has been so near dying.  I mention this, because the English newspapers, speaking by guess on that as they do on all other subjects, might mislead you as to his true situation; or rather, might mislead others, who know less than you do, that a thing is not rendered the more probable, by being mentioned in those papers.