[Sidenote:  America could not furnish numbers in 1917.]

The Allies on the other hand were by no means at their full strength.  America, who stepped into the war just in time to take Russia’s place, still remained impotent, unable to place in Europe numbers in any way commensurate with the situation.  But America was gathering impetus as she went.  And while she was a negligible force in 1917—­except in the matters of food and money—­and would probably be a negligible force in 1918 subject to the same exception, in 1919 she was almost certain to turn the tide strongly against the Central Powers.  Even in 1918 there could be expected a steady though small stream of men across the ocean, who being fresh, eager, and unwearied, might cause trouble.  Germany then had the one chance to win, and that chance demanded that she strike with all her power before America reached the field.  To delay meant not a drawn game but certain defeat.  For if Germany is ever confronted in Europe with the full strength of America in men and in the machinery of war, she will be crushed.

[Sidenote:  Germany must strike before America reaches the field.]

[Sidenote:  The Russian situation is disquieting.]

Finally, the situation in Russia boded ill for Germany.  Great rejoicing has taken place in Berlin and in Vienna over peace with Russia.  But it is a peace which has not altered Germany’s inability to keep faith with any Power.  Her persistent worship of materialism and force has created a situation in Russia not at all to Germany’s liking.  Once the Russian border was absolutely undefended and the way to Petrograd and Moscow wide open, Germany could not resist the temptation to march on in continued aggression, regardless of treaty or promises or peace or morality.  And Russia has furnished strong evidence that she is not at all complacent under such aggression.

[Sidenote:  A new Russian national army is formed.]

[Sidenote:  Danger of guerilla warfare.]

The Russians are in a stage of transition, and are, therefore, unstable, mentally unsettled.  They are completely dissatisfied at Germany’s interpretation of the peace terms.  They see themselves being starved that Germany may fatten on their granaries.  They are reaching the point where organized resistance is the only answer of which the situation is capable.  Steps have already been taken to form a new national army, to offer organized resistance to further encroachments.  There are also large elements which have never accepted the unconditional surrender and which never will.  At any moment in this land of instability, the fires which have been kindled by German bad faith and duplicity may break into a conflagration.  There is no danger at the present time—­there is danger that before the year is out public dissatisfaction and unrest may crystallize and Germany be faced with the most colossal guerilla war the world has seen; and while warfare of this kind cannot defeat Germany, it can neutralize many divisions of German troops and pin them down to the eastern front while the Allies make the finishing stroke in the west.  This situation, out of which anything can grow, made it strongly advisable that Germany should act before the crystallization should take place.