By far the safest course for the politicians was, therefore, to mention no figure at all; and from this necessity a great deal of the complication of the Reparation Chapter essentially springs.

The reader may be interested, however, to have my estimate of the claim which can in fact be substantiated under Annex I. of the Reparation Chapter.  In the first section of this chapter I have already guessed the claims other than those for Pensions and Separation Allowances at $15,000,000,000 (to take the extreme upper limit of my estimate).  The claim for Pensions and Separation Allowances under Annex I. is not to be based on the actual cost of these compensations to the Governments concerned, but is to be a computed figure calculated on the basis of the scales in force in France at the date of the Treaty’s coming into operation.  This method avoids the invidious course of valuing an American or a British life at a higher figure than a French or an Italian.  The French rate for Pensions and Allowances is at an intermediate rate, not so high as the American or British, but above the Italian, the Belgian, or the Serbian.  The only data required for the calculation are the actual French rates and the numbers of men mobilized and of the casualties in each class of the various Allied Armies.  None of these figures are available in detail, but enough is known of the general level of allowances, of the numbers involved, and of the casualties suffered to allow of an estimate which may not be very wide of the mark.  My guess as to the amount to be added in respect of Pensions and Allowances is as follows: 

    British Empire $ 7,000,000,000[106]
    France 12,000,000,000[106]
    Italy 2,500,000,000
    Others (including United States) 3,500,000,000
                                   ---------------
    Total $ 25,000,000,000

I feel much more confidence in the approximate accuracy of the total figure[107] than in its division between the different claimants.  The reader will observe that in any case the addition of Pensions and Allowances enormously increases the aggregate claim, raising it indeed by nearly double.  Adding this figure to the estimate under other heads, we have a total claim against Germany of $40,000,000,000.[108] I believe that this figure is fully high enough, and that the actual result may fall somewhat short of it.[109] In the next section of this chapter the relation of this figure to Germany’s capacity to pay will be examined.  It is only necessary here to remind the reader of certain other particulars of the Treaty which speak for themselves: