[44] It follows that the current rate of production in Germany has sunk to about 60 per cent of that of 1913.  The effect on reserves has naturally been disastrous, and the prospects for the coming winter are dangerous.

[45] This assumes a loss of output of 15 per cent as compared with the estimate of 30 per cent quoted above.

[46] This supposes a loss of 23 per cent of Germany’s industrial undertaking and a diminution of 13 per cent in her other requirements.

[47] The reader must he reminded in particular that the above calculations take no account of the German production of lignite, which yielded in 1913 13,000,000 tons of rough lignite in addition to an amount converted into 21,000,000 tons of briquette.  This amount of lignite, however, was required in Germany before the war in addition to the quantities of coal assumed above.  I am not competent to speak on the extent to which the loss of coal can be made good by the extended use of lignite or by economies in its present employment; but some authorities believe that Germany may obtain substantial compensation for her loss of coal by paying more attention to her deposits of lignite.

[48] Mr. Hoover, in July, 1919, estimated that the coal output of Europe, excluding Russia and the Balkans, had dropped from 679,500,000 tons to 443,000,000 tons,—­as a result in a minor degree of loss of material and labor, but owing chiefly to a relaxation of physical effort after the privations and sufferings of the war, a lack of rolling-stock and transport, and the unsettled political fate of some of the mining districts.

[49] Numerous commercial agreements during the war ware arranged on these lines.  But in the month of June, 1919, alone, minor agreements providing for payment in coal were made by Germany with Denmark, Norway, and Switzerland.  The amounts involved were not large, but without them Germany could not have obtained butter from Denmark, fats and herrings from Norway, or milk and cattle from Switzerland.

[50] “Some 60,000 Ruhr miners have agreed to work extra shifts—­so-called butter-shifts—­for the purpose of furnishing coal for export to Denmark hence butter will be exported in return.  The butter will benefit the miners in the first place, as they have worked specially to obtain it” (Koelnische Zeitung, June 11, 1919).

[51] What of the prospects of whisky-shifts in England?

[52] As early as September, 1919, the Coal Commission had to face the physical impracticability of enforcing the demands of the Treaty, and agreed to modify them as follows:—­“Germany shall in the next six months make deliveries corresponding to an annual delivery of 20 million tons as compared with 43 millions as provided in the Peace Treaty.  If Germany’s total production exceeds the present level of about 108 millions a year, 60 per cent of extra production, up to 128 millions, shall be delivered to the Entente and 50 per cent of any extra beyond that, until the figure provided in the Peace Treaty is reached.  If the total production falls below 108 millions the Entente will examine the situation, after hearing Germany, and take account of it.”