Germany knew that England and France were importing thousands of tons of war supplies and food from the United States.  Judging from the German newspapers which I read at this time every one in Germany had the impression that the food situation in England and France was almost as bad as in Germany.  Even Ambassador Gerard had somewhat the same impression.  When he left Germany for Switzerland on his way to Spain, he took two cases of eggs which he had purchased in Denmark.  One night at a reception in Berne, one of the American women in the Gerard party asked the French Ambassador whether France really had enough food!  If the Americans coming from Germany had the impression that the Allies were sorely in need of supplies one can see how general the impression must have been throughout Germany.

When I was in Paris I was surprised to see so much food and to see such a variety.  Paris appeared to be as normal in this respect as Copenhagen or Rotterdam.  But I was told by American women who were keeping house there that it was becoming more and more difficult to get food.

After Congress declared war it became evident for the first time that the Allies really did need war supplies and food from the United States more than they needed anything else.  London and Paris officials publicly stated that this was the kind of aid the Allies really needed.  It became evident, too, that the Allies not only needed the food but that they needed ships to carry supplies across the Atlantic.  One of the first things President Wilson did was to approve plans for the construction of a fleet of 3,000 wooden ships practically to bridge the Atlantic.

During the first three months of 1917 submarine warfare was a success in that it so decreased the ship tonnage and the importations of the Allies that they needed American co-operation and assistance. So the United States really enters the war at the critical and decisive stage.  Germany believes she can continue to sink ships faster than they can be built, but Germany did not calculate upon a fleet of wooden bottom vessels being built in the United States to make up for the losses.  Germany did not expect the United States to enter the war with all the vigour and energy of the American people.  Germany calculated upon internal troubles, upon opposition to the war and upon the pacifists to have America make as many mistakes as England did during the first two years of the war.  But the United States has learned and profited by careful observation in Europe.  Just as England’s declaration of war on Germany in support of Belgium and France was a surprise to Germany; just as the shipment of war supplies by American firms to the Allies astonished Germany, so will the construction of 3,000 wooden vessels upset the calculations of the German General Staff.

While American financial assistance will be a great help to the Allies that will not affect the German calculations because when the Kaiser and his Generals decided on the 27th of January to damn all neutrals, German financiers were not consulted.