Germany is to-day in the position of a man on the verge of a nervous breakdown; in the position of a man who is under-nourished, who is depressed, who is weighed down by colossal burdens, who is brooding over the loss of friends and relatives, but of a man who feels that his future health and happiness depend upon his ability to hold out until the crisis passes.

If a physician were called in to prescribe for such a patient his first act would in all probability be to stimulate this man’s hope, to make him believe that if he would only “hold out” he would pass the crisis successfully.  But no physician could say that his patient could stand it for one week, a month or a year more.  The doctor would have to gamble upon that man’s nerves.  He would have to stimulate him daily, perhaps hourly.

So it is with the German nation.  The country is on the verge of a nervous breakdown.  Men and women, business men and generals, long ago lost their patience.  They are under-nourished.  They are depressed, distressed, suffering and anxious for peace.  It is as true of the Hamburg-American Line directors as it is true of the officers at the front.

There have been more cases of nervous breakdowns among the people during the last year than at any time in Germany’s history.  There have been so many suicides that the newspapers are forbidden to publish them.  There have been so many losses on the battlefields that every family has been affected not once, but two, three and four times.  Dance halls have been closed.  Cafes and hotels must stop serving meals by 11 o’clock.  Theatres are presenting the most sullen plays.  Rumours spread like prairie fires.  One day Hindenburg is dead.  Two days later he is alive again.

But the Kaiser has studied this war psychology.  He and his ministers know that one thing keeps the German people fighting—­their hope of ultimate victory; their belief that they have won already.  The Kaiser knows, too, that if the public mind is stimulated from day to day by new victories, by reports of many prisoners, of new territory gained, of enemy ships torpedoed, or by promises of reforms after the war, the public will continue fighting.

So the Kaiser gambles from day to day with his people’s nerves.  For two years he has done this, and for two years he has been supported by a 12,000,000-man-power army and a larger army of workers and women at home.  The Kaiser believes he can gamble for a long time yet with his people.

Just as it is impossible for a physician to say how long his patient can be stimulated without breaking down, so is it impossible for an observer in Germany to say how long it will be before the break-up comes in Germany.

Many times during the war Germany has been on the verge of a collapse.  President Wilson’s ultimatum after the sinking of the Sussex in the English Channel brought about one crisis.  Von Falkenhayn’s defeat at Verdun caused another.  The Somme battle brought on a third.  General Brusiloff’s offensive against the Austrians upset conditions throughout the Central Powers.  Rumania’s declaration of war made another crisis.  But Germany passed all of these successfully.