There is an almost unbroken rise in these percentages from 36.6 for age 13 to 42.7 for age 21.  Not only do a greater number of the older pupils fail, as was previously indicated, but they also have a greater percentage of failure for the subjects which they are taking.  It seems appropriate here to offer a caution that, in reading the above percentages, one must not conclude that all of age 14 fail in 38 per cent of their work, but rather that those who do fail at age 14 fail in 38 per cent of their work for that semester.  The evidence does not seem to indicate that the maturity of later years operates to secure any general reduction of these percentages.  The prognostic value of such facts seems to consist in leading us to expect a greater percentage of failures (on the total subjects) from the older pupils who fail than from the younger ones who fail.  If it were possible to translate the above percentages to a basis of the possibility of failure for all pupils, instead of the possibility for failing pupils only, the disparity for the different ages would become more pronounced, as the earlier ages have more non-failing pupils.  But this we are not able to do, as our data are not adequate for that purpose.

4.  THE INITIAL RECORD IN HIGH SCHOOL FOR PROGNOSIS OF FAILURE

For this purpose the pupil record for the first year, in reference to failures, is deemed more adequate and dependable than the record for the first semester only.  Accordingly, the pupils have been classified on their first year’s record into those who had 0, 1, 2, 3, and up to 7 or more failures.  Then these groups were further distributed into those who failed 0, 1, 2, 3, and up to 7 or more times after the first year.  From such a double distribution we may get some indication of what assurance the first year’s record offers on the expectation of later failures.  Table VII presents these facts.

Table VII is read in this manner:  Of all the pupils who have failures the first year (805 boys, and 1,129 girls) 397 boys and 672 girls have failures later, 105 boys and 130 girls have 1 failure later, 77 boys and 98 girls have 2 failures later, while 68 boys and 63 girls have seven or more failures later.  The column of totals to the right gives the pupils for each number of failures for the first year.  The line of totals at the bottom gives the pupils for each number of failures subsequent to the first year.

The table includes 3,508 pupils, since those who did not remain in school more than three semesters are not included (1,120 boys, 1,513 girls).  Obviously, those who do not stay more than one year would have no subsequent school record, and those remaining only a brief time beyond one year would not have a record of comparable length.  It seems quite significant, too, for the purposes of our prognosis, that of the 2,633 pupils dropping out in three semesters or less only about 43 per cent have ever failed (boys—­46 per cent, girls—­41 per cent).  In contrast