In Western Russia, in Eastern Prussia, and in Galicia there dwell about 20,000,000 Poles.  If the war should end, as it is likely to end, in a Russian victory, a powerful kingdom of Poland will arise.  According to the carefully worded manifesto of the Grand Duke the united Poles will receive full self-government under the protection of Russia.  They will be enabled to develop their nationality, but it seems scarcely likely that they will receive entire and absolute independence.  Their position will probably resemble that of Quebec in Canada, or of Bavaria in Germany, and if the Russians and Poles act wisely they will live as harmoniously together as do the French-speaking “habitants” of Quebec and the English-speaking men of the other provinces of Canada.  Russia need not fear that Poland will make herself entirely independent, and only the most hot-headed and short-sighted Poles can wish for complete independence.  Poland, having developed extremely important manufacturing industries, requires large free markets for their output.  Her natural market is Russia, for Germany has industrial centres of her own.  She can expect to have the free use of the precious Russian markets only as long as she forms part of that great State.  At present, a spirit of the heartiest good-will prevails between Russians and Poles.  The old quarrels and grievances have been forgotten in the common struggle.  The moment is most auspicious for the resurrection of Poland.

While Prussia has been guilty of the partition of Poland, Russia is largely to blame for the repeated revolts and insurrection of her Polish citizens....

When the peace conditions come up for discussion at the congress which will bring the present war to an end—­and that event may be nearer than most men think—­the problem of Poland will be one of the greatest difficulty and importance.  Austria-Hungary has comparatively little interest in retaining her Poles.  The Austrian Poles dwell in Galicia outside the great rampart of the Carpathian Mountains, which form the natural frontier of the Dual Monarchy toward the northeast.  The loss of Galicia, with its oilfields and mines, may be regrettable to Austria-Hungary, but it will not affect her very seriously.  To Germany, on the other hand, the loss of the Polish districts will be a fearful blow.  The supreme importance which Germany attaches to the Polish problem may be seen from this, that Bismarck thought it the only question which could lead to an open breach between Germany and Austria-Hungary.  According to Crispi’s Memoirs, Bismarck said to the Italian statesman on the 17th of September, 1877: