by disaffected Poles, Frenchmen, and Danes, and would not very greatly reduce the purely German population of Germany, it would probably result in the dissolution of the Dual Monarchy, which lacks a homogeneous population, and it might lead to Austria’s disappearance as a great State.  If complete disaster should overwhelm the empire of Francis Joseph, Hungary would undoubtedly make herself independent.  The Dual Monarchy would become a heap of wreckage, and in the end the German parts of Austria would probably become a German province, Vienna a provincial Prussian town, the proud Hapsburgs subordinate German princelings.  If, on the other hand, Austria-Hungary should make quickly a separate peace with her opponents, she would presumably lose only the Polish parts of Galicia to the new kingdom of Poland, and Bosnia and Herzegovina to Serbia; and she might receive most satisfactory compensation for these losses by the acquisition of the German parts of Silesia and by the adherence of the largely Roman Catholic South German States, which have far more in common with Austria than with Protestant Prussia.  As a result of the war, Austria-Hungary might be greatly strengthened at Germany’s cost, provided the monarchy makes peace without delay.  In any case, only by an early peace can the bulk of the lands of the Hapsburgs be preserved for the ruling house, and can national bankruptcy be avoided.  There is an excellent and most valuable precedent for such action on Austria’s part.  Bismarck laid down the essence of statesmanship in the maxim “Salus Publica Suprema Lex,” and defined in his memoirs the binding power of treaties of alliance by the phrase “Ultra posse nemo obligatur.”  Referring particularly to the Austro-German alliance, he wrote that “no nation is obliged to sacrifice its existence on the altar of treaty fidelity.”  Before long the Dual Monarchy may take advantage of Bismarck’s teaching.  After all, it cannot be expected that she should go beyond her strength, and that she should ruin herself for the sake of Germany, especially as she cannot thereby save that country from inevitable defeat.  Austria-Hungary should feel particularly strongly impelled to ask for peace without delay, as her recent and most disastrous defeat in Serbia has exasperated the people and threatens to lead to risings and revolts not only in the Slavonic parts of the monarchy but also in Hungary.  Civil war may be said to be in sight.

The Dual Monarchy is threatened besides by the dubious and expectant attitude of Italy and Rumania.  If Austria-Hungary should hesitate much longer to make peace, Italy and Rumania may find a sufficient pretext for war and may join the Entente powers.  Italy naturally desires to acquire the valuable Italian portions of Austria-Hungary on her borders, and Rumania the very extensive Rumanian parts of the Dual Monarchy adjoining that kingdom.  To both powers it would be disastrous if Austria-Hungary should make peace before they had staked out their claims by militarily