pleading on the part of the Government can alter the fact that the 490,000 holdings given by the census include all the lands under crops and grass and two-thirds of the waste.  They embrace 19 million acres, and more than cover the ground.  For the purpose of an estimate it is an outside figure, the more so since, in respect of grass lands the value of a single farm may exceed the limit of any one advance, and it is not uncommon for a large grazier to rent many grass farms.  If the Government, by conferring a judicial status on the Estate Commissioners, surrendered their control over the amounts of single advances; and again, if the Government, at the dictation of Mr. Dillon, embarked on a new policy of creating tenancies in grass land and selling them to new men, they are debarred from increasing the estimate to cover their own misfeasance.  In tendering the speculative estimate of 1903, it was clearly laid down that the amount of one advance was only to be increased in rare cases, and the sub-division of permanent pasture was denounced as a “form of economic insanity.”  It was also explained that deductions must be made from the 490,000 holdings in respect of small town plots, accommodation plots, and market gardens; nor are these insignificant, for to the 80,000 holdings not exceeding one acre we must add 62,000 of from 1 to 5 acres.  In the face of these facts, the assumption that “all agricultural land”—­as defined in the Return—­will be sold, is not only unsound but preposterous.

The second assumption, that the average price of future transactions will equal that of past transactions is opposed to the presumption that better, and therefore dearer farms, came into the market before worse and therefore cheaper farms.  I am not referring to the number of years’ purchase offered, a point on which I have never expressed an opinion, but to the value of the property which passes.  It is with farms as with oranges, the good ones go first.  The pertinence of this maxim to land purchase is proved by the reports of the Estates Commissioners.  These contradict the Government’s second assumption, for they exhibit a steady and continuous decline in the average of advances that have been made.  The average amount of advances under the Act of 1903 to March 31, 1908, was in round numbers L361.  On some such figures the second assumption rests.  I ventured at the time to assert that the average in the future would not exceed L300.  This estimate has been confirmed, for the average advances from March 31, 1908, to September 15, 1909—­when the Act ceased to operate—­was L287.  A further reduction may be confidently expected, since the progress of purchase in the richer provinces has by far exceeded its progress in Connaught.  In Leinster over 53,000 agreements have been lodged at an average price of over L481; in Munster over 58,000 at an average of over L420; in Ulster over 84,000 at an average of over L226; whilst in Connaught only some 26,000 at an average of just under L200.