January 5th, 1900

There has been no substantial, visible change in the military situation since the battle of Colenso on December 15th.  The actions of General French at Colesberg and of Colonel Pilcher at Sunnyside are valuable mainly as evidence that with sound tactics the Boers are by no means invincible, and that British troops only require intelligent leading to be as capable of the best work as any troops in the world.  General French, however, until the hour at which I write had not finished his wrestle with the Boers at Colesberg, and until it is over no military action can be classed either as success or failure.  Colonel Pilcher’s opponents were colonial rebels, probably not as good as Transvaal Boers, who have had in peace more rifle practice.  The losses were small, proving that the resistance of the enemy was by no means desperate, and as the retreating force was not pursued the defeat was not crushing.  Colonel Pilcher by the temporary occupation of Douglas reaped the fruits of his victory, but the whole small campaign is of no very great importance, as the possession of the triangle between the railway and the Riet and Orange Rivers depends in the ultimate issue not upon the event of local skirmishes, but on the issue of the decisive fighting between the British Army and the forces of the Republics.  Lord Methuen’s communications appear to be now well organized and guarded, so that his position need cause no special anxiety.  A good deal depends on the outcome of the struggle between General French and the Colesberg Boers, for, while a Boer defeat would render the line from the Cape to Orange River quite safe, a Boer victory would endanger not only Naauwpoort but De Aar.  General Gatacre’s cue should be to risk nothing.  If he waits where he is and merely holds his own until the sixth division is ready for use no harm will have been done; if he makes any mistakes the consequences may be more than the sixth division can remedy.  The centre of interest still lies between Ladysmith and Frere.  The tone of the telegrams from Ladysmith, which declare that though the bombardment has been more effective since Christmas, and through dysentary and enteric fever are busy, “all is yet well,” proves that the situation of Sir George White’s force is critical, and may at any moment become desperate.  The Boers by occupying and fortifying positions south of the Tugela have taken the best means of making sure that Sir Redvers Buller’s advance, even if successful, shall be delayed and the time taken over it prolonged.  The Boer commander sees clearly that his present object is to delay Sir Redvers Buller, so as to gain the time needed to bring about the fall of Ladysmith.  If that can be secured the next question will be how to damage Sir Redvers Buller.  Of the prospects of Sir Redvers Buller’s attack no estimate can be made.  He is stronger than he was by the greater part of Sir Charles Warren’s division, and it is to be hoped, by plenty of heavy