Gold, in view of the large amount which has been thrown into the monetary circulation of the world since 1843, and the little influence it has exercised upon the money market and prices generally, has falsified the predictions of financial writers, a generation ago, upon both sides of the Atlantic. The following statement will exhibit the wholesale cash prices in the New York market, on the first day of January, in the respective years, of six of the principal articals of commerce:
1860. 1872. 1885. Beef, per barrel $10.75 $10.00 $11.75 Pork, " " 16.25 14.00 12.25 Flour, " " 5.25 4.12 2.55 Rice, " 100 lbs. 3.87 8.44 5.62 Corn, " bushel .93 .81 .48 Cotton, " pound .11 3-4 .21 1-4 .11 1-4
War is the great enhancer of prices. During the Civil War in the United States (1861-1865), the prices of the above articles were more than doubled.
Gold, in the midst of its sudden plethora, was a perplexing problem to the financial prophets of a third of a century ago. M. Michel Chevalier (Revue des Deux Mondes, November, 1857) predicted,—“that a decline would occur in the price of gold, equal to one-half of its former value; that a period of peril was impending, full of inquietude, instability and damage to a great variety of interests; that the value of gold would be diminished, and that consequently wages and prices would be doubled; that the duties on imports, and the interest on the debts of the principal nations of the world, must necessarilly follow the same course; that it would inevitably involve a re-coinage of all the existing gold coins of the world, from time to time, in order to conform to the price of the metal; that the value of the twenty-franc piece would be reduced to 19 1-2, 19, 18 francs, as the depreciation descended; and he, therefore, recommended a cessation of the gold coinage until the lowest point of depreciation is reached; that the new gold fields were likely to prove as productive as at first for several generations; in no direction could new outlets be seen sufficiently large to absorb the extra production in such a manner as to prevent a fall in its value. It might fall until nineteen francs would correspond only to the amount of well being which could then be obtained for five francs.” Poor man! He lived to see the utter failure of all his predictions; to behold France become the largest coiner of gold in the world; an exporter of the precious metals to the amount of $43,000,000 annually during a decade; the rise of the standard of gold from 15 1-2 to 18, as compared with silver, and involving a decline from 62 3-4d. to 52d. per ounce; great fear of a gold famine come upon the Directors of the Bank of France, and also of the Bank of England; the annual product of gold to attain its acme, four years before his predictions; its gradual decline, until it had descended to one-half;